U.S. May Have Mettle, Fewer Medals in Seoul

WASHINGTON — If you’re counting Olympic medals--and who isn’t these days?--what happens this summer in Seoul probably won’t be a repeat of the U.S. nightmare in Calgary, but it’s certainly not going to remind anyone of the summer of 1984 in Los Angeles, either.

Those who believe the United States is going to rebound from its poor performance in the Winter Olympics with another splashy, star-spangled show in Seoul are going to be surprised, say experts within the U.S. Olympic Committee, which ended three days of meetings at the Washington Hilton Saturday.

“I guess everybody’s probably a little bit shook about the perceived disappointment in Calgary,” said Ray Essick, executive director of United States Swimming, Inc. “When you look at medal counts in the Summer Olympics, Los Angeles is such a terrible comparison. The problem is that the American public, in looking at the medal count from Seoul, will be confused by the comparison. There was a boycott in 1984. This year is completely different.”

For the first time since 1976, the United States, the Soviet Union and East Germany will meet in a Summer Olympics. Most guess the Soviets and East Germans will dominate in medals won, with the United States holding down third. At Montreal 12 years ago, the Soviets won 125 total medals; the United States had 94 and East Germany took home 90.

To be sure, U.S. athletes will do very well in certain sports: men’s and women’s basketball, men’s volleyball, diving, freestyle wrestling, yachting. But, in this era of public introspection for the USOC, there are fears of poor performances in several popular U.S. specialties.

Take gymnastics. In 1984, the United States won 5 gold medals, 5 silver medals and 6 bronze medals. The way things look now, U.S. gymnasts in Seoul will be mighty happy to come home with 1 bronze medal or 2 or 3, said Mike Jacki, the executive director of the U.S. Gymnastics Federation.

“We’re going to have the best women’s team we’ve ever had in ability and team depth, but, at the same time, they’re going to face an awfully, awfully tough challenge,” Jacki said Saturday. “I’d hate to think that our kids weren’t able to beat the Soviets because they didn’t have the same opportunities, but right now, I don’t think they have the same opportunities.”

Jacki said state-supported Eastern Bloc competitors have the edge on U.S. athletes, which is not a new theory. But that’s only part of the story of gymnastics competition in the Seoul Games. If the Eastern Bloc had not boycotted Los Angeles, Mary Lou Retton likely would have been a bronze medalist.

In 1976, U.S. men’s swimmers won 12 of 13 gold medals, a phenomenal total. That same year, U.S. women won only 1 as the East Germans officially began their domination of the sport.

In 1984, U.S. swimmers, male and female, won 21 golds. Projecting 1987 world rankings into 1988 Olympic medals, East Germany would win 12 golds. The United States would win 4. In total, based on the ’87 rankings, East Germany would win 30 swimming medals, the United States, 18.

“We feel very good about our team,” Essick said. “We’re going to compete and we’re going to be darn good. But there is parity in sports now in the world, and there’s no reason why there shouldn’t be parity. Our kids are good. Their kids are good, too.”

In track and field, the U.S. has some super heroes in Jackie Joyner-Kersee, Edwin Moses and Carl Lewis, and has others who should win medals. But the days of U.S. dominance are long gone.

The problem extends marathon, where Joan Benoit Samuelson, the 1984 gold medalist, is not competing because of injuries.

USOC President Robert Helmick steadfastly refuses to discuss medal counts, calling that kind of conversation “inappropriate.” But George Steinbrenner, the chairman of the recently appointed Olympic Overview Commission, is on record as saying the medal count is a top priority of his commission, which issued a preliminary status report here and will not complete its final report until next spring.

“The same type of medal count that happened in 1984 won’t happen in 1988,” said Michael Lenard, a member of the commission. “That’s not surprising. You can see it coming.”

Steinbrenner said his commission’s findings will “have no effect whatsoever on Seoul.” The Olympics commission members hope to have an impact on the Games in 1992. (One member of the commission, Donna de Varona, resigned from the board and the USOC Saturday to devote more time to her job at ABC-TV.)

In the meantime, commission members are planning their next meeting May 10, looking to Seoul and wondering what comes next.

“If indeed Calgary was a disappointment, then I think it can be turned into a very positive thing,” Steinbrenner said. “We are the greatest nation in the world at letting the rest of the world catch up, but we’re also the greatest at getting something done when it needs to get done.”