Economic Index Up, but Caution Urged

The University of San Diego’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.7% during October. Two areas--defense contracting and tourism--rose sharply during the month. The increase “should be treated cautiously,” according to USD Professor Alan Gin, who compiled the data.

“Economists typically consider three consecutive monthly movements in the index in one direction as an indication that the prevailing trend is reversing,” Gin said. “The erratic month-to-month movements in the index for 1991 give no such signal.”

San Diego County Economic Indicators Index of Leading Economic Indicators for October: +0.70%(Change From September. Includes Components listed below.) Building Permits: -1.23% (Residential units in September) Unemployment Inusrance: -0.32% (initial claims) Tourism: +2.40% (Tourist activity) Defense: +2.04%(New orders) Stock prices: +-0.00% (S&P;’s 500) Money Supply: +0.05% (Real money M2)