Journalism the clear Kentucky Derby favorite after Santa Anita Derby win
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There is little doubt that Journalism’s performance in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby makes him the favorite for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby.
His troubled trip, which he swatted away with ease, cemented his reputation as a special horse from whom, it’s believed, has not yet run his best race. In the winner’s circle after winning the 1 1/8-mile race, he wasn’t even breathing heavily. As for the 1¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby, it should be no problem.
Trainer Michael McCarthy told Santa Anita publicity on Sunday that things are “all good” after Saturday’s win by three-quarters of a length.
“I thought he showed a lot of poise being down inside,” McCarthy said. “He had to kind of bide his time and wait for a seam to get through. As I said [Saturday], he is amenable to whatever [jockey] Umberto [Rispoli] asks of him.”
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McCarthy said he was going to give the 3-year-old colt a couple of easy days before resuming training at the end of the week. It’s unclear when he will ship to Churchill Downs in Louisville.
What made Journalism’s performance so special was overcoming adversity, where a front-running horse, Westwood, started to back up at the three-eighths pole causing Journalism to significantly slow down, even risking clipping heels with the horse in front of him. This would have been the end for a lesser horse, but Journalism rallied out of the trouble and ran down Baeza in the stretch.
“We knew we had a target on our back,” said Aron Wellman, the managing partner of the ownership group. “He was on the rail and facing two [Bob] Baffert’s and two [John] Shirreffs. We knew they were going to be riding us and they did. For him to overcome that adversity just proves what a spectacular horse he is.”
His accomplishment was not lost on Rispoli.
“It’s rare for a horse to get held up at the three-eighths pole and to get back in the race that way,” Rispoli said. “It’s always difficult, especially for such a big horse. But he has such an amazing style and is just an amazing horse. … I was trapped on the fence and thought, ‘Wow, this isn’t looking good. … Not many horses that big could make it out of there especially on a track like Santa Anita’s.”
Even before the race, bettors showed their confidence in the horse by making him the 5-1 favorite in the final future’s pool from Churchill Downs. On May 3, there is no way he will go off at odds that long.
The last Southern California-based horse to win the Kentucky Derby was Authentic in 2020, when COVID forced the race to be run in September. Medina Spirit crossed the finish line first in 2021 but was subsequently disqualified when he tested positive for a legal medication, but not legal on race day. It took a couple years and several court hearings before that case was finally resolved.
It’s still unknown how many Southern California horses will make the 20-horse starting field for the Kentucky Derby. Normally, the field is almost set after Saturday’s 100-point qualifying races. But, because of weather, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland was moved to Tuesday.
Churchill Downs changed the qualifying structure to penalize races that have small fields. The Santa Anita Derby was only worth 75% of its usual point total because of the five-horse field. It could cost Baeza, the second-place finisher, a trip to the Derby because he was awarded only 37.5 points instead of the usual 50. The current cutoff, barring injuries and the uncertainty of horses coming from Japan, Europe and Middle East, has the cut point at 46 points, with Blue Grass points still to be determined.
Journalism is definitely in, as is Rodriguez, winner of Saturday’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Citizen Bull (71.25 points) and Madaket Road (46 points) are also currently in the field. All three horses not named Journalism are trained by Baffert.
Baffert has long had a strategy that to go to Louisville a horse has to finish first or second or a troubled third to make that trip. However, Citizen Bull and Madaket Road both finished fourth in their last race.
“We will figure this out,” Baffert said. “We have a week and then we’ll decide what is next.”
Built, a colt who like Journalism is owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, is on the cut line but it’s likely he will opt for the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day.
The marquee status of Journalism, Citizen Bull and Barnes, a $3.2 million purchase, brought out a big crowd at Santa Anita on Saturday. The track announced an attendance of 34,312, the biggest Santa Anita Derby day since 2018, when eventual Triple Crown winner Justify was running.
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Santa Anita is known for inflating attendance figures, even forcing the California Horse Racing Board to send a memo to commissioners as to why crowd sizes are no longer part of its annual report because of a lack of accuracy. But, for those at the track on Saturday, there was little doubt it was a much larger crowd than normal, even for a big day.
The track also reported a verifiable mutuel handle of $22.388 million, a 24% increase from last year. It was in part because of race card cancellations at major tracks Keeneland and Oaklawn Park because of weather, thus shrinking the number of national betting options, sending more wagering to Santa Anita.
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