The Times of Troy: Here is what USC needs to do to upset UConn, reach the Final Four

Hi, everyone! Welcome back to another week of the Times of Troy newsletter. I’m Ryan Kartje, your USC beat writer at The Times, coming to you from sunny Spokane, Wash., where USC will face Connecticut Monday night with a chance to earn its first Final Four bid in almost 40 years.

Of course, the basketball world is pretty convinced that won’t happen. Not without JuJu Watkins at least. The Trojans opened as 13-point underdogs to UConn, a number that would’ve seemed unthinkable just nine days ago. But that was before Watkins suffered a season-ending ACL tear and before UConn star Paige Bueckers went absolutely berserk, scoring 40 in the Sweet 16. Connecticut probably would have been favored with Watkins. Now you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who gives USC a puncher’s chance. Even though, just four months earlier, they beat the Huskies on their home court.

But for a moment, let’s entertain the idea that the Trojans aren’t just forfeiting this Elite Eight matchup before it begins. This is March, after all. Anything can happen.

So what exactly would need to happen for USC to defy the odds and move onto the Final Four?

1. Kiki Iriafen bounces back. The third-team All-American was completely neutralized by the frontline of Kansas State, which threw constant double teams her way. Iriafen admitted afterward she was not used to the sort of attention reserved for No. 1 options and struggled to adjust, finishing with a season-low seven points. Any USC win over UConn would require a much better performance from Iriafen, who’s only one game removed from a 36-point outing.
   
2. Kennedy Smith has the game of her life on defense. Even on a team with Watkins, who’s stellar on that end, Smith is the Trojans’ best on-ball defender. She’ll presumably match up with Bueckers more than anyone, and how that matchup shakes out will say a lot about where this game is headed. It’ll be up to Smith — and to some extent, Avery Howell — to get in her head early and force her to become a distributor instead of a scorer. If Bueckers has a big game, like she did Saturday, USC is toast.
   
3. Don’t turn it over. USC did great in this regard on Saturday, turning the ball over a season-low nine times compared to 16 for Kansas State. That’s especially impressive given how differently the offense operates without Watkins. USC did a great job protecting the ball during its December win over UConn, and it’ll need to do the same again. Extra possessions for the Huskies are USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb’s worst nightmare.
   
4. Rayah Marshall and Clarice Akunwafo aren’t caught flat-footed by the Huskies’ pick-and-roll. Bueckers and Co. can be devastating in the pick-and-roll game — especially if the opposing team’s bigs can’t keep up. That’s where Marshall and Akunwafo could be especially strained. Neither is exactly renowned for their footspeed. But they have the length to make things difficult on UConn in the paint, and how they adjust to a much different, quicker attack from the Huskies will be a critical variable.
   
5. Get out to a fast start. But also slow it down. Both USC and Connecticut can be ruthless offensively when they pick up the pace. But without Watkins, that’s a battle that the Trojans shouldn’t invite. USC should make this game as slow and painful as possible, limiting the number of possessions because UConn can build a big lead in a hurry. USC will have a hard time recovering if that’s the case.

Portal plans

A year ago, when he first took the reins of USC’s men’s basketball team, Eric Musselman had an entire roster to rebuild.

The job is much more manageable this time around. So where will USC train its focus this portal season?

It starts down low, where the Trojans are in dire need of big men. Only Rashaun Agee is slated to return, and that’s assuming the NCAA grants his waiver for an extra year.

USC has already been in hot pursuit of Florida State sophomore Taylor Bol Bowen, who visited campus last week, while Indiana forward Malik Reneau, another visitor, is a prime possibility to fit in as a four. Expect Musselman to add multiple players in that mold, especially if they offer any sort of rim protection.

The rest of USC’s portal plan hinges, in part, on what happens in the coming weeks. Desmond Claude could still test the draft waters, but considering where his stock currently stands, I’d expect him to return for another season. Kevin Patton and Isaiah Elohim have already entered their names in the portal, while the only other player whose future seems at all uncertain is Jalen Shelley. USC would certainly prefer to keep him in the fold.

A new point guard will be needed no matter what, with exactly zero options right now behind Claude. But USC is already bringing in three freshman guards, including five-star Alijah Arenas. With Claude, Yates and Arenas, there’s not a lot of room left for a ball-dominant scorer in the backcourt.

The frontcourt is another story. Don’t be surprised if every player 6-foot-8 or taller in the transfer portal gets a good long look.

Extra points

USC safety Kamari Ramsey lines up on the field during a game against Wisconsin on Sept. 28 at the Coliseum.

(Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)

—Kamari Ramsey’s decision to stay at USC “wasn’t really that hard.” Even still, the Trojans safety surprised me when he chose to forego the draft, where I expect he could have been a Day 2 pick. But Ramsey called it “a business decision.” The prospect of revenue sharing, plus what I’m sure was a strong NIL package, probably helped ease any concern about forgoing an NFL paycheck. However it happened, his return is a major lift to a secondary that was pretty much starting from scratch otherwise.

—Lincoln Riley was asked why USC canceled its spring game. And his answer was in close alignment with what we wrote in this space a month ago. No team wants to actually show anything schematically that they’re going to use during the season. So it’s just not worth the time spent on preparing for the spring game, just to put on a totally unremarkable exhibition. “We felt like we could just continue to progress and not have to maybe worry about that,” Riley said. Makes sense to me.

—Ethan Hedges continues to rake as a two-way star for USC baseball. Hedges hit his ninth and tenth home runs of the season on Saturday against Indiana, continuing his scorching start to the season. His homer in the eighth inning energized a wild, 10-run comeback, as USC won 13-12. The comeback was USC’s biggest since 2003. Hedges is still batting over .400 while also serving as USC’s closer this season, allowing six hits over nine innings. The Trojans are off to a 16-11 start and need just 10 more wins to best their top record of the past decade. It looks like they’ll reach that mark with ease.

Times of Troy picks the men’s Final Four …

Duke players dump confetti on coach Jon Scheyer after defeating Alabama in an Elite Eight game Saturday in Newark, N.J.

(Frank Franklin II / Associated Press)

Duke over Houston

Florida over Auburn

Duke over Florida

In case you missed it

USC’s defense against UConn star Paige Bueckers begins with Kennedy Smith

Freshman duo of Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell lift USC into Elite Eight rematch with UConn

USC women prevail over Kansas State to return to Elite Eight of NCAA tournament

What will USC look like without JuJu? Trojans are ready to find out

What can JuJu Watkins expect after ACL tear? Paige Bueckers and others offer insight

Rob Ryan’s enthusiasm is winning over the USC defense

Jayden Maiava shows improvement as he fights to retain USC starting quarterback job

Plaschke: JuJu Watkins’ knee injury cuts deep into the USC star and Trojans’ title hopes

JuJu Watkins’ season-ending injury casts shadow over USC advancing to Sweet 16

What I’m Watching This Week

Walton Goggins, Danny McBride, Adam Devine and Edi Patterson pose on the red carpet at “The Righteous Gemstones” premiere on March 5 at Paramount Theatre.

(Chris Pizzello / Invision / AP)

No show in recent memory has made me laugh out loud like “Righteous Gemstones.” The HBO comedy follows a not-so righteous family of evangelicals behind a mega church. The three siblings — played by Danny McBride, Adam Devine and Edi Patterson — are hilarious and perfect, and Walton Goggins as their uncle Baby Billy is one of my favorite supporting performances I can remember. The show is in its last season, but trust me, the four seasons fly by.